Security
EURSEK Research & Market Analysis
Finvaulta tracks 32 research reports on EURSEK, updated through September 1, 2026. Latest: “Short-Term Fair Values: G10 & Asian FX Chart Package”.
Research across multiple institutions indicates a generally favorable outlook for the Swedish Krona (SEK) within the EUR/SEK pair, driven by resilient domestic fundamentals and quantitative overvaluation of the Euro. Crédit Agricole identifies EUR/SEK as currently trading in overvaluation territory, while UBS classifies the SEK as an 'Attractive' currency poised to benefit from shifts toward pro-growth global sentiment. From a quantitative perspective, analysts utilize Short-Term Fair Value (STFV) models to highlight interest rate differentials and risk metrics as the primary drivers for Scandinavian crosses. These models currently favor SEK over NOK, citing Norway-Sweden rate spreads and equity performance as catalysts for further SEK strength. Looking ahead, Danske Bank targets a 12-month EUR/SEK level of 11.20, reflecting a broader macro shift toward US-led growth but maintaining Swedish resilience. Supporting this trajectory, Nordea notes that Sweden’s low inflation and projected GDP growth of 2.6% in 2026 provide the Riksbank with a stable platform to eventually hike rates to 2.25% by 2027.
Featured reports
Short-Term Fair Values: G10 & Asian FX Chart Package
This automated chart package from SEB Macro & FICC Research updates short-term fair value (STFV) misvaluations across G10 and Asian FX pairs as of September 1, 2026. It decomposes deviations and drivers such as interest rate spreads, risk factors, oil, and equity ratios.
Lower Interest Rates an Issue for SEK?
Handelsbanken analyzes empirical data since 2002 showing that lower Swedish interest rates relative to global peers have consistently weakened the SEK, invalidating uncovered interest rate parity and turning the krona into a funding currency. While the rate gap remains a near-term headwind, the Riksbank is expected to hike in Q1 2027, narrowing the differential and supporting SEK strength later in 2027.
Nvidia Lifts Risk Appetite - Focus Shifts to Jackson Hole
Nvidia's strong quarterly report boosted tech stocks and lifted global risk sentiment ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium. Meanwhile, EUR/SEK reached annual highs as the Swedish krona weakened across G10 currencies.
Nordic Outlook: Hope Rises Amid Autumn Uncertainty
SEB raises its global growth forecast to 3.1% in 2026, noting that adaptability in energy markets and strong investment in AI and defence have mitigated geopolitical shocks from the Iran war. Central bank paths are diverging, with the Fed holding rates and the ECB executing an additional rate hike in September before eventual easing cycles in 2027–2028.
Sweden 360 Weekly Market Review
SEB forecasts an upward revision to Swedish Q1 GDP and predicts the Riksbank will keep rates at 1.75% through 2027 despite geopolitical risks. The report highlights that while the property sector has extended its debt maturity, households remain highly exposed to floating rates.
EURSEK Solid Fundamentals
UBS maintains a constructive medium-term view on the SEK, projecting EURSEK to decline to 10.30 by June 2027. Despite near-term pressure from low yields, Sweden's solid fundamentals and energy independence support a stronger krona.
FX Forecast Update
Danske Bank signals the end of US dollar debasement, revising its EUR/USD forecast down to 1.12 over 12 months. The shift is driven by resilient US growth, AI investment, and a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve expectations amid persistent energy price shocks.
Short Term Fair Values G10 and Asian FX Chart Package
This SEB chart package analyzes G10 and Asian currency valuations relative to their short-term fair values as of May 12, 2026. It highlights over- and under-valuations for major pairs like EUR/USD, EUR/SEK, and USD/JPY based on rate spreads and risk factors.
FX Model Trend & Strategy
FX Model Trend & Strategy
Week Ahead: Summer Slowdown
All reports
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Short-Term Fair Values: G10 & Asian FX Chart Package
SEB · Sep 1, 2026
Lower Interest Rates an Issue for SEK?
Handelsbanken · Aug 28, 2026
Nvidia Lifts Risk Appetite - Focus Shifts to Jackson Hole
SEB · Aug 27, 2026
FX Model Trend & Strategy
Bank J. Safra Sarasin · Aug 26, 2026
Nordic Outlook: Hope Rises Amid Autumn Uncertainty
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB · Aug 25, 2026
FX Model Trend & Strategy
Bank J. Safra Sarasin · Aug 25, 2026
Week Ahead: Summer Slowdown
Monex Europe · Aug 17, 2026
Yen: Why Bessent Backs Himself for Successful Intervention
ING · Aug 17, 2026
Markets Resilient Amid Higher Rates and Geopolitical Tensions
SEB · Aug 17, 2026
G10 and Asian FX Short-Term Fair Values
SEB · Jul 14, 2026
Fast Fx Fair Value Model
Crédit Agricole CIB · Jul 13, 2026
FAST FX Fair Value Model
Crédit Agricole CIB · Jul 13, 2026
USD: The Return of King USD
Crédit Agricole CIB · Jun 24, 2026
Fast FX Fair Value Model
Crédit Agricole CIB · Jun 22, 2026
Fast FX Fair Value Model
Crédit Agricole CIB · Jun 22, 2026
Fast Fx Sell Eur Sek
Crédit Agricole CIB · Jun 22, 2026
G10 and Asian FX Short Term Fair Values
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB · Jun 2, 2026
Fast Fx Fair Value Model Buy Eur Jpy
Crédit Agricole CIB · Jun 1, 2026
Fast FX Fair Value Model Buy EUR JPY
Crédit Agricole CIB · Jun 1, 2026
AUD/NZD: The US-Iran Trade
Crédit Agricole CIB · May 29, 2026
Fast FX Fair Value Model: EUR/JPY Undervalued
Crédit Agricole CIB · May 25, 2026
Sweden 360 Weekly Market Review
SEB · May 25, 2026
Closing Short NOK SEK Trade for Profit
Crédit Agricole CIB · May 25, 2026
EURSEK Solid Fundamentals
UBS · May 22, 2026
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