Crédit Agricole CIB
May 19, 2026
Fast FX Fair Value Model Still Selling NOK SEK
FX StrategyFXRates Govt BondsEquitiesOther
Crédit Agricole's FAST FX model initiates a new short position in NOK/SEK at 1.0151, targeting a fair value of 1.0003. Other pairs like EUR/SEK and EUR/GBP show overvaluation but lack sufficient signals for a trade entry under current 'unstable' model regimes.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The FAST FX model has triggered a new short NOK/SEK trade due to persistent overvaluation, with a fair value estimate of 1.0003.
- 2.The previous NOK/SEK short trade was stopped out for a loss of -1.21% last week.
- 3.EUR/SEK and EUR/GBP models are currently unstable; both pairs show overvaluation but haven't reached the 2-standard-deviation sell trigger required for secondary models.
Table of Contents
- Still selling NOK/SEK
- Short-term fair value charts
- t-statistic charts
- Historical trade performance
- FX Research advanced tools
- Red Mount Analytics
- Global Markets Research contact details
- Certification
- Valuation and methodology
- Disclaimer
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Authors
Valentin MarinovDavid Forrester
Securities
NOKSEKEURSEKEURGBPUSDJPY
Themes
Quantitative FX Fair Value ModelingCross-Asset Model Drivers (Rates & Equities)
Regions
EuropeUKAsia PacificNorwaySwedenJapan
