Report Type
Weekly Update
Recent weekly updates reflect a complex macroeconomic landscape characterized by regional resilience and normalizing supply chains set against sector-specific distress and elevated market volatility. In New Zealand, the labor market demonstrated recovery with 0.5% quarterly employment growth, while a 15.2% surge in dairy prices improved sector outlooks for 2026. However, U.S. retail sales faced headwinds from extreme weather, with shopper traffic declining 14.1% year-over-year despite stabilizing gas prices and a return to pre-pandemic supply chain bottleneck scores of '2'. Market stress is increasingly visible in the software sector, which has fallen 21% year-to-date, impacting credit valuations for BDC portfolios with high sector exposure. In response, derivatives analysis highlights elevated risk premiums, with index put skew at the 98th percentile and single-stock implied volatility at the 77th percentile. These conditions have prompted tactical shifts toward selective earnings-driven call positions and the use of Financials (XLF) as a cost-effective hedge against private credit stress. Overall, research direction suggests a transition toward defensive positioning and catalyst-focused trades ahead of pivotal FOMC decisions.
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New Zealand Weekly Data Wrap
New Zealand's economy shows signs of a 'spring thaw' with robust employment growth and surging dairy prices, though interest rates have reached cycle highs.
ETF Compass: When Software Cracks Credit Feels It
This report highlights a growing sensitivity in the credit market to software equity weakness, as software comprises 20% of BDC portfolios. It recommends XLF put spreads as a cost-effective hedge for potential BDC deterioration.
Retail Trends to Watch
January retail trends were negative, with the GS/TRE Raw Index down 0.2% YoY and ShopperTrak traffic declining 14.1% as of late January. Performance was likely hindered by national temperatures falling 11 degrees below historical norms.
Tracking US Supply Chain Congestion
The Goldman Sachs Supply Chain Congestion Scale remained at a '2' for the week of February 2, 2026, despite a 7% weekly increase in the composite index. Overall fluidity remains close to pre-pandemic levels with zero ship backlogs on the U.S. West Coast.
Optimal Overwrites
Goldman Sachs highlights overwriting opportunities in stocks with high implied volatility and no near-term earnings, such as MU and STX, while noting extreme demand for S&P 500 index downside protection.
Weekly Options Watch
Goldman Sachs recommends buying options for FOMC-day volatility as SPX implies a +/-0.5% move. The report also highlights six idiosyncratic earnings trade ideas including Lockheed Martin puts and Fair Isaac calls.