Region

Latin America Research & Market Analysis

Finvaulta tracks 1278 research reports on Latin America, updated through October 7, 2026. Latest: Peru: MPC on Hold Again at 4.25%.

Institutional research on Latin America covering equities, macro, government bonds, and commodities, from Goldman Sachs, UBS, J.P. Morgan, and Scotiabank. Finvaulta indexes each report with a summary, key figures and its original publication date.

Finvaulta is an independent research collection; views and forecasts belong to the named report issuers.

Latest research

Peru: MPC on Hold Again at 4.25%

Goldman Sachs·Oct 7, 2026

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru's MPC held its benchmark rate at 4.25%, defying consensus expectations for a 25bp hike. Although the MPC retained a near-term hawkish bias, it continues to treat elevated headline inflation of 4.5% as transitory energy-driven supply shocks.

Colombia: Inflation Undershoots in September as Goods Inflation Turns Negative

Goldman Sachs·Oct 7, 2026

Colombia's September headline CPI increased by 0.37% mom (6.28% yoy), below consensus, driven down by negative core goods inflation and easing core ex-food metrics. Goldman Sachs views the print as marginally dovish for monetary policy, though year-end headline risks remain tilted to the upside.

Chile: Soft Employment Numbers Have Kept Wage Bill Growth Weak

Goldman Sachs·Oct 7, 2026

Chilean nominal hourly wage growth eased to 7.6% yoy in August, while real wage growth softened to 3.4% yoy amid rising inflation. Combined with weak employment and shorter working hours, real aggregate wage bill growth tracked at just 0.6% yoy, keeping demand-side inflationary pressures contained.

Argentina: Manufacturing and Construction Activity Improved in August

Goldman Sachs·Oct 7, 2026

Argentina's manufacturing industrial production and construction activity improved sequentially in August, rising 1.9% mom sa and 0.4% mom sa respectively. However, both sectors remained weak on an annual basis, contracting 3.2% yoy and 4.4% yoy.

Updating Large Caps: Highlight BKR, FTI as Stocks with Most Positive 2027 Consensus Revisions Amid Macro Uncertainty

Goldman Sachs·Oct 7, 2026

Ahead of 3Q earnings season, Goldman Sachs updates estimates across large-cap oilfield services, highlighting a relative preference for BKR and FTI due to defensive business models and 2027 consensus upside. Estimates for SLB are tempered by ongoing Middle East disruptions, while HAL maintains leverage to North American completions and Latin American activity.

US Market Intelligence Morning Briefing

J.P. Morgan·Oct 7, 2026

J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence reiterates its Tactically Bullish equity stance into 26Q3 earnings, citing stabilizing bond yields, resilient consumer demand, and broadening sector earnings growth. The desk also pitches a bull thesis on Brazilian equities and suggests tactically longing a Democratic policy factor basket into the midterms.

Compare with the previous edition (Oct 2, 2026)

Selected research

Selected for relevance; publication dates show when each report was written.

Brazil General Election: The Right Wins the Night

Goldman Sachs·Oct 7, 2026

Right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47.0% of the first-round vote, leading incumbent President Lula da Silva (45.2%) and establishing himself as the favorite for the October 25 runoff. A concurrent conservative wave handed right and center-right parties control of 57% of the Lower House and 63% of the Senate, reinforcing legislative constraints on fiscal policy regardless of who wins.

Emerging Markets Morning Pulse

Bank J. Safra Sarasin·Oct 6, 2026

Emerging market credit traded mixed to steadier, resilient against higher US Treasury yields with the 10-year reaching 5.32%. Brazil was the premier outperformer following election results, with sovereign spreads narrowing 16–18 bps and corporates advancing 1–3 points.

EMFX Weekly

Bank J. Safra Sarasin·Oct 6, 2026

J. Safra Sarasin's FX trading desk analyzes the market reaction to Flávio Bolsonaro's surprise first-round victory in the Brazilian presidential election, which sparked a 5% rally in the BRL. The desk remains bullish on the Brazilian real while highlighting MXN/BRL as an emerging tactical rotation play.

LatAm Equity Strategy: Brazil Back to Overweight, Downgrading Chile to Neutral

J.P. Morgan·Oct 5, 2026

J.P. Morgan upgrades Brazil back to Overweight and downgrades Chile to Neutral following Brazil's first-round election results. The strategist team anticipates a 12% to 20% near-term rally in MSCI Brazil driven by multiple re-rating and expected Selic interest rate cuts.

Sunday Start: EM's Stress Test

Morgan Stanley·Oct 4, 2026

Emerging markets are demonstrating resilience against rising US yields, elevated oil prices, and dollar strength thanks to orthodox policy and manageable maturity walls. Morgan Stanley anticipates subdued returns rather than a disorderly sell-off, recommending tactical USD hedges in ZAR and MXN while waiting for valuation overshoots to add directional long exposure.

Mexico's Economic Package Contained No Surprises

Scotiabank·Sep 14, 2026

Mexico's Ministry of Finance submitted its 2027 Economic Package, targeting a reduction in Public Sector Borrowing Requirements to 3.9% of GDP from 4.1% in 2026. The plan relies on optimistic growth and interest rate assumptions relative to consensus, while facing rigid spending pressures from pensions and debt service.