Security

EURGBP Research Hub

Current research identifies EURGBP as remaining in overvaluation territory according to quantitative models, although the pair currently lacks the extreme z-score needed for an unstable regime. Analysts at UBS forecast a decline to 0.86 through 2027, highlighting that the pound's higher carry makes it a more attractive total return play than the euro despite expected ECB rate hikes in June. UK economic indicators have recently outperformed expectations, though the currency remains sensitive to political risk following recent local election results and potential leadership challenges. Institutional views generally favor the US dollar over both currencies due to growth differentials, yet Sterling's political risk premium is expected to diminish as fiscal policy remains consistent. Furthermore, while the pound is currently described as 'unloved' by investors, recovering global demand through ETF flows suggests a stabilizing outlook. Ultimately, the synthesis of these reports points toward a bearish trajectory for EURGBP as the pound leverages its carry advantage and resilient economic data.

21 reports available

EURGBP Stable Exchange Rate Expected

UBS·May 25, 2026

UBS expects EURGBP to stabilize at 0.86 through mid-2027 as UK political uncertainty fades and economic data surprises to the upside. The GBP is preferred for total returns due to its 2% yield carry advantage over the EUR.

Global FX Trader: Divergence Dialed Up

Goldman Sachs·May 24, 2026

The report highlights a 'Divergence Dialed Up' theme where the US Dollar benefits from AI-driven growth and energy self-sufficiency while Europe and Asia face headwinds. It provides updated FX forecasts for G10 and EM currencies amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

FX Daily Headline Rollercoaster Continues

ING·May 28, 2026

FX markets are currently trapped in a headline-to-headline environment driven by US-Iran tensions, despite underlying hawkish macro support for the USD. Meanwhile, the GBP has shed its political risk premium and CEE currencies face divergent interest rate outlooks.

GS Morning: Global Macro, US CPI Preview, and Trump-Xi Meeting

Goldman Sachs·May 12, 2026

Goldman Sachs updates its global macro outlook, lowering US recession risk to 25% while previewing a 0.31% core CPI print. The report also highlights expectations for the Trump-Xi meeting and fiscal risks in the UK Gilt market.

GS Morning update: Thoughts From the Floor and European Views

Goldman Sachs·May 18, 2026

This morning update highlights the outperformance of AI and energy sectors due to supply shortages while warning of risks from rising yields and the Iranian conflict. It specifically recommends EURGBP upside to hedge UK fiscal risk and expects German defense spending to buffer Euro area growth.

Political Drama in Westminster and the GBP

Crédit Agricole CIB·May 21, 2026

The report analyzes the impact of UK Labour party leadership turmoil on the GBP, outlining three scenarios ranging from a bearish left-wing shift to a bullish pro-EU pivot. It concludes that while political drama is high, the GBP is buffered by oversold positioning and hawkish Bank of England expectations.

Trading UK Political Risks: From Betting Odds to GBP Vol Spreads

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank·May 28, 2026

FX Morning Update

Goldman Sachs·May 13, 2026

G10 FX Daily Report

J.P. Morgan·May 26, 2026

All reports

Page 1 of 1

FX Goldman Sachs J.P. Morgan ING

Get full access

14-day trial · card required