Report published May 12, 2026

FX Daily: Impact of US CPI and Equity Market Sentiment – ING Analysis (May 12, 2026)

ING · May 12, 2026

ING anticipates a 0.9% MoM US headline CPI print that may boost the USD only if it triggers a correction in resilient equities. Meanwhile, political risk is emerging in the UK, and the Czech National Bank is signaling a dovish stance relative to market expectations.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.ING forecasts a hot 0.9% MoM US headline CPI print, significantly above the 0.6% consensus, though core CPI is expected to remain moderate at 0.3%.
2.The US dollar's upside potential following CPI data depends on an equity market correction, as risk sentiment has become a more dominant driver than rate differentials.
3.Political instability in the UK is beginning to bake a risk premium into Sterling as pressure mounts for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign.

USD: Another 0.9% MoM inflation jump
EUR: ZEW to remain pessimistic
GBP: More political premium can build
CZK: CNB may wait a long time with rate hikes
Author

Report data

Another 0.9% MoM inflation jump is expected in the US, driven by rising gasoline and diesel prices

Metric	Estimate	Context
US Headline CPI Forecast	0.9 % MoM	Above consensus of 0.6% MoM.
US Core CPI Forecast	0.3 % MoM	In line with market expectations.
Fed tightening in curve	7 bp	Represents current market pricing for additional hikes.
GBP Political Overvaluation	0.3%	Short-term overvaluation in EUR/GBP based on ING model.