Report published June 11, 2026

FX Daily: Euro Already Prices a Hawkish ECB (ING Report, 11 June 2026)

ING · June 11, 2026

The dollar maintains a bullish bias due to persistent inflation expectations and Fed policy, while the euro faces limited upside as the expected ECB hike is already priced in. Regional central bank policy divergences continue to drive volatility in CEE currencies.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The ECB's expected 25bp rate hike is fully priced into money markets, limiting the euro's upside potential.
2.The USD remains supported by expectations of a Fed rate hike by year-end despite lower US core CPI.
3.Diverging central bank policies in the CEE region are driving local currency performance.

FX Daily: Euro already prices a hawkish ECB
USD: Dollar holds its bullish bias despite US core CPI
EUR: A high bar for the ECB to lift the euro
TRY: Hawkish tone remains
CEE: Different central bank paths lead to different FX

Report data

Today's ECB hike is fully priced into money markets, with another 25bp hike priced by September

Metric	Estimate	Context
Deposit Rate	2.25%	ECB deposit rate

Reports in this series

FX Daily is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on June 11, 2026.

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Authors / Editors

Chris Turner · Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEEFrantisek Taborsky · EMEA FX & FI StrategistFrancesco Pesole · FX Strategist