Security
USDJPY Research and Market Analysis
Finvaulta tracks 342 research reports on USDJPY, updated through September 4, 2026. Latest: “Global FX Weekly: Means to a Yen”.
USD/JPY continues to maintain its primary uptrend, consistently testing the critical 160.0 intervention threshold despite official efforts to curb the currency's depreciation. The pair's strength is largely driven by the US dollar’s role as a high-yielding safe haven, supported by persistent inflation and geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Conversely, the Japanese yen faces significant pressure from concerns regarding fiscal sustainability and lackluster demand observed in JGB auctions. While quantitative fair value assessments suggest the pair is currently trading near equilibrium, internal Japanese market signals are more concerning, specifically the recent surge in 10-year break-even inflation rates. These developments, alongside potential declines in market liquidity, heighten the risk of a disorderly rise in yields that may further destabilize the exchange rate. Consequently, research remains focused on the interplay between US dollar trajectories and Japan's evolving fiscal policy backdrop.
Featured reports
Global FX Weekly: Means to a Yen
BofA Global Research advises selling USD/JPY toward 149 and initiating long AUD/SGD, citing BoJ rate hike acceleration and RBA tightening alongside commodity upside. In EM, the strategists favor high-yielding FX carry funded via low-yielding peers, recommending a short THB versus long INR and MYR basket.
Daily FX Update: USD Extends Gains as Fed Expectations Build
The USD is strengthening across the board as markets price a 70% probability of a September Fed rate hike amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Gulf. The JPY outperformed following hawkish BoJ commentary, while the NZD plunged 1.5% after a dovish RBNZ rate hike.
JPY Strengthens Supported by BoJ Rate Hike Expectations
Hawkish commentary from BoJ officials has fully priced in a September rate hike and pushed USD/JPY back below 160.00, despite headwinds from oil near $100/bbl. Meanwhile, the NZD dropped after the RBNZ signaled a cautious, gradual path despite delivering a 25bps hike.
What Is Needed to Halt or Reverse the Weak Yen Trend?
J.P. Morgan assesses the potential paths for the Japanese yen following coordinated intervention and rising BOJ rate hike expectations. The base case sees USD/JPY holding within a 155–165 range, with targets of 160 in 3Q26 and 164 in 4Q26.
Daily FX Update
The USD trades in a narrow range ahead of Fed Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole appearance and US benchmark payroll revisions. Major currency pairs are subdued, with high yielders slightly outperforming while the JPY lags despite recent Japanese currency intervention.
World at a Glance: Ending the Summer
BofA Global Research keeps its baseline end-2026 forecasts for US 10-year Treasury yields (4.50%), EUR/USD (1.15), and Brent crude ($82/bbl) unchanged. Revisions are concentrated in Asia and G10 crosses, with USD/CNY upgraded to 6.60, USD/JPY lowered to 149, and BoJ terminal rate raised to 2.00%.
Rates Strategy Weekly
Mizuho analyzes recent BOJ communications and coordinated forex intervention, suggesting a potential near-term acceleration in rate hikes while maintaining a 1.50% terminal rate cap.
Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch
Mizuho’s macro team maintains a outlook for gradual BOJ rate hikes to 1.5% by mid-2027, viewing current market terminal rate expectations as overly aggressive. Domestic data remains mixed with solid wage growth but declining consumption spending.
FX Weekly: Upside JPY Risks as Momentum Turns
Is the Tide Beginning to Turn in Favour of a Stronger JPY?
Asia FX Weekly: Focus on China Data and US CPI
All reports
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FX Weekly: Upside JPY Risks as Momentum Turns
MUFG · Sep 4, 2026
Is the Tide Beginning to Turn in Favour of a Stronger JPY?
MUFG · Sep 4, 2026
Asia FX Weekly: Focus on China Data and US CPI
MUFG · Sep 4, 2026
Asia FX Talk: Japanese Yen Strengthens Sharply
MUFG · Sep 4, 2026
FX Daily: 50/50 Fed Call Keeps Risk Assets in Demand
ING · Sep 4, 2026
Global FX Trader: Is This For Real?
Goldman Sachs · Sep 4, 2026
Global FX Weekly: Means to a Yen
Bank of America · Sep 4, 2026
Japan Weekly Kickstart: Bimonthly Flows Update
Goldman Sachs · Sep 4, 2026
International Market Intelligence Morning Briefing
J.P. Morgan · Sep 4, 2026
Early Morning Reid: Macro Strategy
Deutsche Bank · Sep 4, 2026
Weathering the Shocks
ING · Sep 3, 2026
Yield Curve Dynamics Drive the Dollar
ING · Sep 3, 2026
FX Daily: Nervousness Continues
ING · Sep 3, 2026
Daily Points
Scotiabank · Sep 2, 2026
Daily FX Update: USD Extends Gains as Fed Expectations Build
Scotiabank · Sep 2, 2026
Higher Yields Put Currency Fundamentals to the Test
UBS · Sep 2, 2026
JPY Strengthens Supported by BoJ Rate Hike Expectations
MUFG · Sep 2, 2026
FX Daily: Risks Skewed to a Stronger Dollar
ING · Sep 2, 2026
Multi-Asset Strategy Daily
Mizuho Securities · Sep 2, 2026
How Might Markets Be Impacted by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Push for BOJ Rate Hikes
Mizuho Securities · Sep 2, 2026
30y JGB Auction Preview: Caution Prudent Amid a Slew of Risk Factors, but Asset Swaps and 30s40s Steepeners Warrant Consideration
Mizuho Securities · Sep 2, 2026
International Market Intelligence Morning Briefing
J.P. Morgan · Sep 2, 2026
Short-Term Fair Values: G10 & Asian FX Chart Package
SEB · Sep 1, 2026
PMI Figures Kick Off the Dreaded Month for Stocks
SEB · Sep 1, 2026
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