Institution
Mizuho Securities Research Hub
Mizuho Securities’ research highlights a pivot in Japan’s macroeconomic landscape, characterized by expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in June 2026 amid signals of faster price pass-throughs and 1Q real GDP growth of 0.5%. Although April CPI decelerated to 1.9% due to government subsidies, Mizuho forecasts a reacceleration to over 2.5% by 2027, driven by high crude oil prices exceeding $100/bbl and the ongoing Iran conflict. In the bond market, the institution notes that 10-year JGB yields have surged to 2.80%, prompting recommendations for tactical longs and asset swaps at current attractive yield levels like the 3.715% seen in the 20-year sector. Fiscal policy remains a critical theme, with a proposed JPY3 trillion supplementary budget being weighed against legal constraints to maintain net debt supply neutrality. Furthermore, Mizuho's modeling suggests that while the government's average coupon rate will rise to 1.7% by FY2030, debt sustainability remains achievable if nominal GDP growth persists between 2.5% and 4.5%. Overall, the research depicts a market transitioning to a higher-yield environment where domestic insurers and regional banks are increasingly stepping in to absorb supply.
77 reports available
Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account Surplus to Fund Consumption Tax Cut
The Japanese government is evaluating the use of FEFSA surpluses and FILP bonds to fund consumption tax cuts and defense spending. Analysts remain cautious about the impact of increased bond issuance on JGB yield stability.
Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account Surplus to Fund Consumption Tax Cut, FILP Bonds for Increased Defense Spending
The report analyzes recent government proposals to use Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account surpluses for tax cuts and Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (FILP) bonds for defense spending. It warns that these measures may face significant implementation hurdles and could ultimately trigger upward pressure on JGB yields.
Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account Surplus and Defense Spending
The report analyzes proposals to utilize the Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account (FEFSA) for consumption tax cuts and the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (FILP) for defense spending. It concludes that such strategies face fiscal constraints and may exert upward pressure on Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields.
30y JGB Auction Preview
This report previews the 30y JGB auction, weighing fiscal headwinds against attractive yields and stabilized interest rate expectations. Analysts see limited near-term room for super-long yield spikes, though fiscal policy remains a key uncertainty.
30y JGB Auction Preview
This report provides a preview for the upcoming 30y JGB auction, identifying fiscal policy concerns as a headwind while noting that limited BOJ terminal rate upside makes the sector attractive for medium-term holding.
30y JGB Auction Preview
This report previews the 30y JGB auction, noting that while fiscal expansion concerns persist as a headwind, limited upside for super-long yields makes the sector potentially attractive for medium-term holding.
BOJ Expected To Hike At June Meeting
Global Economy And Finance Weekly Watch
Rates Strategy Weekly
All reports
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Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account Surplus to Fund Consumption Tax Cut
Mizuho Securities · Jun 12, 2026
Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account Surplus to Fund Consumption Tax Cut, FILP Bonds for Increased Defense Spending
Mizuho Securities · Jun 11, 2026
Foreign Exchange Fund Special Account Surplus and Defense Spending
Mizuho Securities · Jun 10, 2026
30y JGB Auction Preview
Mizuho Securities · Jun 12, 2026
30y JGB Auction Preview
Mizuho Securities · Jun 10, 2026
30y JGB Auction Preview
Mizuho Securities · Jun 9, 2026
BOJ Expected To Hike At June Meeting
Mizuho Securities · Jun 11, 2026
Global Economy And Finance Weekly Watch
Mizuho Securities · Jun 9, 2026
Rates Strategy Weekly
Mizuho Securities · Jun 9, 2026
Second Preliminary GDP Estimates for 1Q 2026
Mizuho Securities · Jun 8, 2026
Japan Macro Weekly
Mizuho Securities · Jun 8, 2026
Japan Macro Update
Mizuho Securities · Jun 5, 2026
Ueda Hawkish Remarks And BOJ June Rate Hike
Mizuho Securities · Jun 5, 2026
BOJ June Rate Hike Outlook and Ueda Hawkish Remarks
Mizuho Securities · Jun 4, 2026
Evaluating Consumption Tax Cuts and JGB Issuance
Mizuho Securities · Jun 4, 2026
Concerns About Food Price Hikes and Consumption Tax Cut
Mizuho Securities · Jun 3, 2026
Japan Macro Food Price Hikes and Consumption Tax Cut Impact
Mizuho Securities · Jun 2, 2026
Rates Strategy Weekly: Curve Implications of Iran Peace Negotiations
Mizuho Securities · Jun 2, 2026
Rates Strategy Weekly: Iran Peace Negotiations Impact
Mizuho Securities · Jun 1, 2026
Japan Macro Industrial Production Update
Mizuho Securities · Jun 1, 2026
April Industrial Production Update
Mizuho Securities · May 29, 2026
Proposal to Reduce Consumption Tax on Food and Beverages
Mizuho Securities · May 29, 2026
Medium-Term Projections Of BOJ Bond Holdings Under Various Tapering Scenarios
Mizuho Securities · May 28, 2026
PM Announces Supplementary Budget and Market Implications
Mizuho Securities · May 27, 2026