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Finvaulta tracks 168 research reports on Mizuho Securities, updated through June 22, 2026. Latest: “May JSDA Trading Volume of Over-the-Counter Bonds”.

Mizuho Securities’ research highlights a pivot in Japan’s macroeconomic landscape, characterized by expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in June 2026 amid signals of faster price pass-throughs and 1Q real GDP growth of 0.5%. Although April CPI decelerated to 1.9% due to government subsidies, Mizuho forecasts a reacceleration to over 2.5% by 2027, driven by high crude oil prices exceeding $100/bbl and the ongoing Iran conflict. In the bond market, the institution notes that 10-year JGB yields have surged to 2.80%, prompting recommendations for tactical longs and asset swaps at current attractive yield levels like the 3.715% seen in the 20-year sector. Fiscal policy remains a critical theme, with a proposed JPY3 trillion supplementary budget being weighed against legal constraints to maintain net debt supply neutrality. Furthermore, Mizuho's modeling suggests that while the government's average coupon rate will rise to 1.7% by FY2030, debt sustainability remains achievable if nominal GDP growth persists between 2.5% and 4.5%. Overall, the research depicts a market transitioning to a higher-yield environment where domestic insurers and regional banks are increasingly stepping in to absorb supply.

Featured reports

May JSDA Trading Volume of Over-the-Counter Bonds thumbnail

May JSDA Trading Volume of Over-the-Counter Bonds

Mizuho Securities·Jun 22, 2026

This report details May 2026 trading volumes for Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), noting significant dip-buying activity by trust banks and foreign investors despite rising yields. Institutional positioning varied by sector, with insurers and agricultural lenders cautious due to fiscal concerns.

Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch thumbnail

Global Economy and Finance Weekly Watch

Mizuho Securities·Jun 22, 2026

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1% while continuing to taper JGB purchases. Mizuho economists expect a terminal rate of 1.5% with further hikes occurring biannually.

Inflation Still Likely To Accelerate Despite Lower Oil Prices thumbnail

Inflation Still Likely To Accelerate Despite Lower Oil Prices

Mizuho Securities·Jun 22, 2026

Despite the sharp decline in global oil prices, Mizuho expects Japan's inflation to continue rising due to persistent core goods pricing and lagged energy adjustment mechanisms. This environment supports the Bank of Japan's path toward continued policy rate normalization.

Fixed Income Japan: BOJ Policy Update thumbnail

Fixed Income Japan: BOJ Policy Update

Mizuho Securities·Jun 17, 2026

The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate to 1% amid improved economic conditions and a strategic 'hands-off' approach from the Takaichi administration. Mizuho forecasts a terminal rate of 1.5% with further hikes occurring at a semi-annual cadence.

Evaluating Consumption Tax Cuts and JGB Issuance thumbnail

Evaluating Consumption Tax Cuts and JGB Issuance

Mizuho Securities·Jun 4, 2026

Mizuho Securities expresses skepticism over government claims that a consumption tax cut for food and beverages can be funded without additional JGB issuance. The report warns that the required tax revenue windfalls are unrealistic and could lead to higher bond yields due to fiscal deterioration concerns.

Scenario Analysis for Domestic Fiscal Impact of Higher Defense Spending thumbnail

Scenario Analysis for Domestic Fiscal Impact of Higher Defense Spending

Mizuho Securities·May 28, 2026

Japan's push for higher defense spending faces significant fiscal hurdles as inflation and GDP rebasing increase the absolute cost of the 2% GDP target. Reaching 3.5% of GDP would require up to JPY 17tn in additional annual funding, potentially pressuring the JGB market.

Medium-Term Projections Of BOJ Bond Holdings Under Various Tapering Scenarios thumbnail

Medium-Term Projections Of BOJ Bond Holdings Under Various Tapering Scenarios

Mizuho Securities·May 28, 2026

Mizuho projects BOJ JGB holdings will fall to the JPY300 trillion range (approx. 40% of GDP) by FY2030 under various tapering scenarios. The report suggests the BOJ may halt or slow tapering after March 2027 as market functioning improves.

April JSDA OTC Bond Trading Volume thumbnail

April JSDA OTC Bond Trading Volume

Mizuho Securities·May 22, 2026

This Mizuho Securities report analyzes April 2026 JSDA OTC bond trading data, highlighting a reversal in foreign investor flattener positions and a return of domestic dip-buying in JGBs.

Multi-Asset Strategy Daily

Mizuho Securities·Sep 6, 2026

LDP Secretary-General and Chief Cabinet Secretary Reported Likely to Stay On

Mizuho Securities·Sep 4, 2026

Assessing Market Reactions to Narrowing of the Perception Gap Between the BOJ's Executive Team and More Hawkish Policy Board Members

Mizuho Securities·Sep 3, 2026

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