Second Preliminary GDP Estimates for 1Q 2026

Japan's 1Q 2026 GDP was revised down to +0.5% QoQ, driven by weaker private non-residential investment. Despite this, the economy remained resilient heading into the second quarter.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Real GDP growth for 1Q 2026 was revised down slightly to +0.5% QoQ.
• 2.Downward revision was primarily driven by private non-residential investment dropping to -0.7% QoQ.
• 3.High oil prices due to geopolitical tensions pose a downside risk for 2Q growth, though the base case assumes normalization.

Table of Contents

• Overview
• Breakdown by demand components
• Important Disclosure Information
• Analyst Certification
• Disclaimer