Asset Class

FX Research & Market Analysis

Finvaulta tracks 2660 research reports on FX, updated through September 4, 2026. Latest: “Canada: The Next Acceleration”.

Recent institutional research reflects diverging perspectives on the US dollar, where near-term resilience driven by US growth outperformance, AI-led capital expenditure, and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance contrasts with medium-term downside risks stemming from Treasury buybacks and overbought technical conditions. Bullish strategists project continued USD appreciation against vulnerable G10 peers like EUR and GBP alongside tactical longs in USD/NOK, while alternative views warn of mispriced rate paths and advocate for long FX volatility to hedge asymmetric whipsaw risks. With G10 FX volatility sitting at multi-year lows, analysts also suggest stepping outside USD pairs to exploit relative value dislocations, such as shorting inverted NOK/SEK volatility. In Asia, structural currency adjustments remain a core theme, with China projected to steer a gradual 3–5% annual RMB appreciation targeting USD/CNY at 6.00 by 2028, while Bank of Japan normalization supports short USD/JPY positions targeting 149. Cross-currency opportunities also favor commodity tailwinds via long AUD/SGD. Finally, emerging market carry trades remain well-supported by Treasury buyback backstops, favoring intra-Asia relative value trades like long INR and MYR against THB as well as long USD/PEN, even as soft Chinese domestic demand and regional caution temper the broader EM backdrop.

Featured reports

Global FX Weekly: Means to a Yen

Bank of America·Sep 4, 2026

BofA Global Research advises selling USD/JPY toward 149 and initiating long AUD/SGD, citing BoJ rate hike acceleration and RBA tightening alongside commodity upside. In EM, the strategists favor high-yielding FX carry funded via low-yielding peers, recommending a short THB versus long INR and MYR basket.

Capitalism and the Dollar: The AI Race, Tokenization, and the Dollar's Future

Deutsche Bank·Sep 3, 2026

The US is using blockchain-based asset tokenization to lower barriers for foreign capital, funding roughly $800bn in annual AI capex alongside twin fiscal and current account deficits. However, this pivots US funding toward volatile equity flows, making the US dollar increasingly leveraged to American AI dominance against China's low-cost open-weight model.

Why Beijing May Favor Gradual RMB Appreciation

Goldman Sachs·Sep 2, 2026

Goldman Sachs expects Chinese policymakers to favor a gradual 3–5% annual appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar over the coming years. This path balances Beijing's goals of manufacturing leadership, RMB internationalization, and market-value GDP catch-up without significantly hurting real trade-weighted export competitiveness.

South Africa: The Path Back to Investment Grade

Goldman Sachs·Sep 1, 2026

Goldman Sachs argues that South Africa's improving fiscal trajectory, easing supply bottlenecks, and political stability under coalition governance support credit upgrades to BB+ within a year and a return to Investment Grade by 2028. Current market valuations across local rates, FX, and equities do not yet reflect this structural turnaround.

Global FX Weekly

Bank of America·Aug 7, 2026

This report analyzes the recent USD sell-off as a rate-differential story rather than a risk-premium event. It also covers coordinated FX intervention in Japan and provides tactical trade recommendations across G10 and EM currencies.

Fx Weekly

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jul 10, 2026

This report analyzes the G10 FX market outlook, highlighting the persistence of low FX volatility amidst Middle East tensions and the continued dominance of USD-funded carry trades.

FX Volatility Monitor

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jul 8, 2026

The report highlights depressed G10 FX volatility and identifies NOK/SEK as a compelling candidate for shorting volatility due to its inverted term structure and unique z-score matrix positioning.

G10 FX Strategy: Buy FX Vol, Not The USD

Morgan Stanley·Jun 23, 2026

Morgan Stanley suggests that the USD rally is tactically overextended and vulnerable to a reversal, recommending long FX volatility as a superior hedge over USD exposure.

Multi-Asset Strategy Daily

Mizuho Securities·Sep 6, 2026

Global Reflections

Morgan Stanley·Sep 5, 2026

Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart

Goldman Sachs·Sep 5, 2026

All reports

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