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Mizuho Securities’ research highlights a pivot in Japan’s macroeconomic landscape, characterized by expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in June 2026 amid signals of faster price pass-throughs and 1Q real GDP growth of 0.5%. Although April CPI decelerated to 1.9% due to government subsidies, Mizuho forecasts a reacceleration to over 2.5% by 2027, driven by high crude oil prices exceeding $100/bbl and the ongoing Iran conflict. In the bond market, the institution notes that 10-year JGB yields have surged to 2.80%, prompting recommendations for tactical longs and asset swaps at current attractive yield levels like the 3.715% seen in the 20-year sector. Fiscal policy remains a critical theme, with a proposed JPY3 trillion supplementary budget being weighed against legal constraints to maintain net debt supply neutrality. Furthermore, Mizuho's modeling suggests that while the government's average coupon rate will rise to 1.7% by FY2030, debt sustainability remains achievable if nominal GDP growth persists between 2.5% and 4.5%. Overall, the research depicts a market transitioning to a higher-yield environment where domestic insurers and regional banks are increasingly stepping in to absorb supply.

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