Monthly Outlook: Memorandum of Misunderstanding

Rabobank's June outlook assumes the Strait of Hormuz will remain unnavigable until September 2026, forcing upward revisions to global inflation and downward revisions to growth. The report highlights shifting central bank stances toward more hawkish policies to anchor inflation expectations amidst these persistent supply shocks.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Strait of Hormuz is expected to remain effectively closed to normal energy flows through September 2026 despite reports of a potential MoU between the US and Iran.
• 2.Global inflation forecasts have been revised upward due to persistent energy and supply chain shocks, with Eurozone energy price spikes shifting later into 2027.
• 3.Central banks are shifting toward a more hawkish/measured stance; the ECB is now expected to hike twice rather than once, and the Fed's easing cycle has been delayed.

Table of Contents

• Fixed Income
• Foreign Exchange
• Agri Commodities
• Energy Markets
• Eurozone
• The Netherlands
• United Kingdom
• United States
• Canada
• Mexico
• Brazil
• China
• Australia
• Forecasts

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