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ING’s research highlights a prevailing hawkish tilt across global central banks, with expectations of a June ECB 'insurance' hike and upward shifts in the Bank of Korea's 'dot-plot' toward 3.0% for 2026. Despite this tightening bias, analysts caution that soft economic indicators like the May PMI and lower fiscal support increase the risk of an ECB policy mistake reminiscent of 2011. In currency markets, the US dollar remains well-supported by strong labor data and persistent inflation, which continues to exert pressure on the euro, the Korean won, and certain CEE currencies. On the structural front, the adoption of generative AI in the Eurozone remains surprisingly low at 34%, suggesting that any potential productivity-led economic payoffs may be delayed by adoption hurdles. Furthermore, while European bank green bond issuance has reached €40bn year-to-date in 2026, the adoption of the rigorous European Green Bond Standard (EuGBS) remains limited to 11% of the total due to strict EU Taxonomy alignment requirements. Collectively, these insights point to a complex environment of sustained high interest rates, geopolitical energy risks, and a cautious transition toward both digital and green economic standards.

123 reports available

What's Next For US Copper Import Tariffs

ING·Jun 12, 2026

The US is nearing a decision on potentially imposing a 15% tariff on refined copper imports by 2027, which has already caused significant stockpiling in the US. This policy uncertainty has driven a $400/t spread between COMEX and LME copper prices.

FX Daily

ING·Jun 11, 2026

The dollar maintains a bullish bias due to persistent inflation expectations and Fed policy, while the euro faces limited upside as the expected ECB hike is already priced in. Regional central bank policy divergences continue to drive volatility in CEE currencies.

Favourable Czech Inflation Sharpens Focus On June CNB Meeting

ING·Jun 5, 2026

Czech headline inflation decelerated to 2.1% in May, prompting ING to forecast a hawkish hold from the CNB in June. Despite recent hawkish rhetoric, the potential economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz tensions supports a cautious wait-and-see approach.

National Bank of Poland Interest Rate Outlook

ING·Jun 4, 2026

NBP Governor Glapinski indicates that current interest rates are sufficient to control inflation, signaling a prolonged pause in rate changes. ING expects rates to remain steady through the end of 2026.

Rates Spark Spread Exposures

ING·Jun 4, 2026

Eurozone sovereign spreads, particularly Italy's, have widened due to geopolitical volatility and high oil prices, which ING expects to remain around US$90/bbl by year-end.

Rates Spark: The Real Deal

ING·Jun 3, 2026

While oil and inflation drive short-term rate movements, structural factors like AI-driven growth and record bond supply are keeping real rates elevated. Unless a recession occurs, real rates are unlikely to return to the ultra-low levels seen after the global financial crisis.

The Commodities Feed: Ceasefire Optimism Weighs on Energy Markets

ING·May 29, 2026

The Commodities Feed

ING·Jun 2, 2026

Dollar to Build a Stronger Footing

ING·Jun 1, 2026

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