National Bank of Poland Preview: May Inflation Assessment

The National Bank of Poland is expected to keep its reference rate at 3.75% on June 2 after May inflation fell surprisingly to 3.1%. This lower-than-expected figure, driven by record food price declines, reduces the pressure for near-term rate hikes despite high oil prices.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to maintain the reference rate at 3.75% during its June 2nd meeting.
• 2.May CPI inflation surprisingly slowed to 3.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 3.7% market consensus.
• 3.The sharp decline in food prices and slowing wage growth have reduced the immediate pressure for policy tightening.

Table of Contents

• National Bank of Poland preview: May inflation gives time to assess oil shock
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