Report published May 28, 2026

FX Daily: Headline Rollercoaster Continues – ING Strategy Report (28 May 2026)

ING · May 28, 2026

FX markets are currently trapped in a headline-to-headline environment driven by US-Iran tensions, despite underlying hawkish macro support for the USD. Meanwhile, the GBP has shed its political risk premium and CEE currencies face divergent interest rate outlooks.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The dollar remains volatile and headline-dependent due to conflicting signals on US-Iran negotiations and fresh military strikes.
2.Macro support for USD is strengthening as markets price in 18bp of Fed tightening by year-end, up from previous easing expectations.
3.The British pound's political risk premium has been fully unwound as the leadership challenge threat recedes and the frontrunner adopts market-friendly stances.

USD: No clarity on US-Iran negotiations
EUR: Brief dip below 1.160
GBP: Political risk premium gone
CEE: Less hawkish picture undermines koruna strength
Author

Report data

Yesterday's comments by US President Donald Trump have poured cold water on any tentative optimism

Metric	Estimate	Context
Core PCE Inflation	0.3%	ING's expectation, which is below the 0.5% consensus.
Fed Year-End Rate Pricing	18 bp	Market shift from 5-10bp of easing to 18bp of tightening.
Poland Inflation (May)	3.7%	Highest since June last year and above central bank tolerance band.