Report published May 29, 2026

FX Daily: New Ceasefire and Market Implications - ING Research May 2026

ING · May 29, 2026

A tentative 60-day Iran ceasefire extension has softened the US dollar, though structural reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and central bank rate differentials remain the primary drivers for FX markets.

Read the full report

Read the remaining 3 pages

View Report Sign in

Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.A 60-day ceasefire extension in Iran has provided market relief, but the dollar's decline is limited until the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
2.German CPI may surprise on the upside (potentially above 3.0%), which could provide short-term support to the Euro.
3.The Canadian Dollar is lagging in the G10 due to negative rate differentials and uncertainty surrounding USMCA renegotiations.

USD: Chasing the next headline
EUR: German inflation may surprise on the upside
CAD: Rate differentials are weighing
CEE: Polish inflation tests central bank's patience
Author

Report data

Dollar movement following ceasefire extension

Metric	Estimate	Context
Fed Tightening Expectation	15 bp	Markets betting on further tightening despite lower energy prices.
Germany CPI (Flash May)	3.0%	ING macro team sees upside risk above the 2.9% consensus.
Poland Headline Inflation	3.7%	Forecast increase from 3.2% to 3.7% year-on-year.