Security

USDCAD Currency Research Hub

The USDCAD pair is currently navigating a dollar-positive global macro environment driven by US inflation upside surprises and a hawkish Federal Reserve reaction function. While Canada's headline CPI is projected to rise toward 3.1% due to energy costs, core inflation has notably moderated to 2.05%, prompting institutions like BofA and RBC to expect the Bank of Canada to maintain its policy rate through 2026. Despite the typical support of high oil prices, the CAD remains under pressure as market participants price out potential rate hikes and the USD benefits from a persistent yield advantage. Technical analysis suggests a range-bound outlook for USDCAD between 1.3500 and 1.3900, supported by the DXY index’s momentum toward its 99.25/50 gap target. Geopolitical risks, including stalled US-Iran negotiations and global PMI contractions, further reinforce the USD’s safe-haven status relative to the Loonie. Overall, research indicates that while some analysts hold a medium-term bearish USD view, the short-term trajectory is defined by Canadian yield curve steepening and US fiscal concerns fueling bond yields.

31 reports available

Daily FX Update thumbnail

Daily FX Update

Scotiabank·Jun 2, 2026

The G10 FX market remains tentative with a quiet USD, while the AUD outperforms on hawkish RBA rhetoric and the CAD weakens ahead of trade talks. Geopolitics in the Middle East and softening global bond yields are the primary macro drivers.

Daily FX Update thumbnail

Daily FX Update

Scotiabank·May 26, 2026

The USD is weakening in thin holiday conditions as optimism over a US/Iran deal boosts risk appetite across G10 currencies. Commodity-linked currencies and equities are generally stronger, while oil prices have retreated sharply.

Daily FX Update thumbnail

Daily FX Update

Scotiabank·May 28, 2026

The US dollar is gaining broadly as renewed US-Iran hostilities trigger risk aversion ahead of crucial US PCE inflation data. The Canadian dollar has weakened to new local lows due to both geopolitical sentiment and widening yield spreads.

Daily FX Update thumbnail

Daily FX Update

Scotiabank·Jun 4, 2026

The USD maintains a firm base due to widened yield spreads, while the CAD struggles against robust US data. The EUR leads G10 performance ahead of upcoming ECB policy decisions.

AUD/NZD: The US-Iran Trade thumbnail

AUD/NZD: The US-Iran Trade

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank·May 29, 2026

Crédit Agricole maintains a bearish outlook on AUD/NZD targeting 1.16, citing a narrowing interest rate differential and easing oil price pressures from a potential US-Iran ceasefire extension.

Daily FX Update thumbnail

Daily FX Update

Scotiabank·May 25, 2026

The USD is trending higher against most majors amid geopolitical risks in the Middle East and hawkish Fed sentiment. USDCAD has broken above 1.3800 as interest rate spreads widen in favor of the USD.

Daily FX Update

Scotiabank·Jun 1, 2026

Bank of Canada Preview: On Hold Amid Technical Recession and Oil Risks

Bank of America·Jun 4, 2026

Daily FX Update

Scotiabank Global FX Strategy·May 14, 2026

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