Security

USDCAD Currency Research Hub

Finvaulta tracks 71 research reports on USDCAD, updated through September 2, 2026. Latest: “Daily FX Update: USD Extends Gains as Fed Expectations Build”.

The USDCAD pair is currently navigating a dollar-positive global macro environment driven by US inflation upside surprises and a hawkish Federal Reserve reaction function. While Canada's headline CPI is projected to rise toward 3.1% due to energy costs, core inflation has notably moderated to 2.05%, prompting institutions like BofA and RBC to expect the Bank of Canada to maintain its policy rate through 2026. Despite the typical support of high oil prices, the CAD remains under pressure as market participants price out potential rate hikes and the USD benefits from a persistent yield advantage. Technical analysis suggests a range-bound outlook for USDCAD between 1.3500 and 1.3900, supported by the DXY index’s momentum toward its 99.25/50 gap target. Geopolitical risks, including stalled US-Iran negotiations and global PMI contractions, further reinforce the USD’s safe-haven status relative to the Loonie. Overall, research indicates that while some analysts hold a medium-term bearish USD view, the short-term trajectory is defined by Canadian yield curve steepening and US fiscal concerns fueling bond yields.

Featured reports

Daily FX Update: USD Extends Gains as Fed Expectations Build

Scotiabank·Sep 2, 2026

The USD is strengthening across the board as markets price a 70% probability of a September Fed rate hike amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Gulf. The JPY outperformed following hawkish BoJ commentary, while the NZD plunged 1.5% after a dovish RBNZ rate hike.

Global FX Trader: Reasons, Meet Resolve

Goldman Sachs·Aug 28, 2026

Goldman Sachs reviews macro FX dynamics across USD, CNY, CAD, CEE, ARS, and FX factors, upgrading USD/CNY forecasts to 6.40 over 12 months. The report highlights ongoing support for carry strategies, tactical CAD weakness amid tariff escalation, and relative value opportunities such as short PLN/HUF.

CAD Weekly

Scotiabank·Aug 28, 2026

The CAD depreciated approximately 1% against the USD following Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole, widening US/Canada swap spreads. Scotiabank projects a USDCAD trading range of 1.3747–1.3941 in the week ahead amid key BoC and NFP releases.

Cross-Asset Weekly

Bank J. Safra Sarasin·Aug 28, 2026

US Q2 earnings delivered exceptional 34.2% YoY growth, but peak growth is likely past as four key drivers—energy prices, FX, low net interest, and deferred depreciation—begin to turn. Concurrently, the US Treasury is expanding long-dated bond buybacks to manage duration, and CAD volatility is set to rise amid new US-Canada bilateral tariffs.

The Canadian Dollar Has Further to Fall on Tariff Chaos

ING·Aug 26, 2026

ING expects the Canadian dollar to underperform G10 peers as markets price in tariff chaos and dovish Bank of Canada rate expectations. While USD/CAD has near-term upside to 1.3920–1.3950, broader USD weakness should cap the pair near 1.39 at end-3Q and 1.38 at end-4Q.

FX Snapshot

Scotiabank·Jul 14, 2026

Weaker-than-expected US inflation data has alleviated Fed tightening pressure, supporting a near-term recovery for the Canadian Dollar. Scotiabank expects a narrowing policy gap between the Fed and the Bank of Canada to strengthen the CAD further.

G10 FX Daily Report

J.P. Morgan·Jun 26, 2026

The report highlights a cautious, tactical approach to G10 FX markets ahead of month-end rebalancing and US payroll data. The author maintains a largely neutral USD stance while managing specific tactical shorts and longs in JPY, CAD, and GBP.

AUD/NZD: The US-Iran Trade

Crédit Agricole CIB·May 29, 2026

Crédit Agricole maintains a bearish outlook on AUD/NZD targeting 1.16, citing a narrowing interest rate differential and easing oil price pressures from a potential US-Iran ceasefire extension.

Canada: The Next Acceleration

Morgan Stanley·Sep 4, 2026

FX Daily: Nervousness Continues

ING·Sep 3, 2026

Bank of Canada Fires a Hawkish Warning Shot

Scotiabank·Sep 2, 2026

All reports

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