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ING’s research highlights a prevailing hawkish tilt across global central banks, with expectations of a June ECB 'insurance' hike and upward shifts in the Bank of Korea's 'dot-plot' toward 3.0% for 2026. Despite this tightening bias, analysts caution that soft economic indicators like the May PMI and lower fiscal support increase the risk of an ECB policy mistake reminiscent of 2011. In currency markets, the US dollar remains well-supported by strong labor data and persistent inflation, which continues to exert pressure on the euro, the Korean won, and certain CEE currencies. On the structural front, the adoption of generative AI in the Eurozone remains surprisingly low at 34%, suggesting that any potential productivity-led economic payoffs may be delayed by adoption hurdles. Furthermore, while European bank green bond issuance has reached €40bn year-to-date in 2026, the adoption of the rigorous European Green Bond Standard (EuGBS) remains limited to 11% of the total due to strict EU Taxonomy alignment requirements. Collectively, these insights point to a complex environment of sustained high interest rates, geopolitical energy risks, and a cautious transition toward both digital and green economic standards.

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