Report published May 27, 2026

FX Daily: RBNZ Joins the Hawks – Institutional Market Analysis by ING

ING · May 27, 2026

ING reports a hawkish shift in global markets, led by a surprisingly aggressive rate forecast from the RBNZ and expectations of a firming Fed bias. Meanwhile, Hungary moves toward easing and Uzbekistan's resumed gold sales bolster the soum.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The RBNZ shifted to a hawkish stance, narrowly voting to hold rates at 2.25% but aggressively revising its terminal rate forecast to 3.25%.
2.The US dollar is expected to remain supported ahead of the June FOMC meeting as inflation moves further from targets and a hawkish tide grows.
3.The National Bank of Hungary held rates at 6.25% but signaled a dovish tilt, opening the door for potential rate cuts in June.

USD: Hawkish tide
EUR: Trading on the soft side
HUF: The door opens to change
UZS: Restart of gold exports to further reinforce the soum
Author

Report data

Key figures extracted from this report

Metric	Estimate	Context
RBNZ Policy Rate	2.25%	3-3 split decided by governor's vote.
RBNZ Terminal Rate Projection	3.25%	Upward revision from previous projections.
Uzbekistan Gold Exports	1.5 billion USD	Non-monetary gold exports after 6 month pause.
Average Gold Price Forecast	4,855 USD/oz	ING House view.
ADP jobs	42 thousand	New cycle high.

Source: RBNZ; Bloomberg; ING; ADP. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

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Authors / Editors

Chris Turner · Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEEFrantisek Taborsky · EMEA FX & FI StrategistDmitry Dolgin · Chief Economist, CIS