ING
May 15, 2026
Turkish Central Bank Puts All Policy Options on the Table
Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsFXRates Govt BondsFinancials
The Central Bank of Turkey has raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 26% and signaled a flexible 'tighter for longer' policy stance in response to geopolitical risks.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Turkish Central Bank (CBT) hiked its 2026 year-end inflation forecast to 26%, moving closer to market expectations of 27.53%.
- 2.Policy stance remains 'tighter for longer' as the bank incorporates the persistent inflationary effects of Middle East geopolitical tensions.
- 3.The CBT has shifted from inflation ranges to point estimates, citing high uncertainty and supply shocks.
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Authors
Muhammet Mercan
Securities
TRYOil
Themes
Geopolitical Spillover to InflationCentral Bank Communication Strategy
Regions
Middle EastTurkeyUnited StatesIran