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May 20, 2026

FX Daily: More Bond Fuel for the Dollar Rally

Daily UpdateFXRates Govt BondsCommoditiesInformation TechnologyEnergy

The US dollar is strengthening as rising real yields and inflation concerns drive a bond market sell-off, while downside surprises in UK inflation reduce the likelihood of aggressive BoE hikes.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The ongoing US bond market sell-off and rising real yields are providing strong support for the US dollar.
  • 2.UK inflation surprised to the downside at 2.8% YoY, making a June Bank of England rate hike a 'close call' (50/50 probability).
  • 3.Global risk-off sentiment and Middle East tensions are driving the USD safe-haven appeal to its highest levels since late 2022.

Table of Contents

  • USD: Bond sell-off keeps offering support
  • EUR: Downside risks remain
  • GBP: Lower-than-expected inflation makes BoE hike a close call
  • CEE: Weighed down by negative sentiment
  • Author
  • Disclaimer

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Authors

Francesco PesoleFrantisek TaborskyChris Turner

Securities

DXYNVDABrent CrudeUS TreasuriesEURUSD

Themes

Inflation-driven Bond Sell-offGeopolitical Safe Haven DemandMonetary Policy Divergence

Regions

North AmericaUKEuropeUnited StatesUnited KingdomPoland