G10 FX Daily Report

J.P. Morgan's daily FX update highlights a tentative USD bullish bias and concerns over weak UK data, while noting potential hawkish surprises from the RBNZ.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Maintains a bullish bias on the USD heading into the June Fed meeting, despite low conviction and recent lack of directional flow.
• 2.UK economic data has come in weak across PMIs, employment, and CPI, leading to market pricing shifting the expected BoE rate hike from June to July.
• 3.Expects RBNZ to leave rates at 2.25% but flags a significant risk of a 'front-loading' hike or a hawkish shift toward July given unanchored inflation expectations.

Table of Contents

• G10 FX
• JPY
• CHF
• RBNZ Rate Decision
• CAD Outlook
• Nordics (SEK & NOK)

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