GS Morning: Global Macro, US CPI Preview, and Trump-Xi Meeting

Goldman Sachs updates its global macro outlook, lowering US recession risk to 25% while previewing a 0.31% core CPI print. The report also highlights expectations for the Trump-Xi meeting and fiscal risks in the UK Gilt market.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global growth remains resilient with US recession probability reduced to 25% due to easing financial conditions and strong activity.
• 2.US April core CPI is forecasted at 0.31% MoM, with headline CPI expected at 0.58% due to rising energy prices.
• 3.The upcoming Trump-Xi meeting is a potential catalyst for USDCNH appreciation, with a target of 6.70 in 1-2 months.

Table of Contents

• GLOBAL ECONOMICS (HATZIUS) – Global Views: Bending, Not Breaking
• US ECON (WALKER) – US April CPI Preview
• FX SALES (DOOLING) – US-China: What to Watch Out For Around Trump-XI Meeting This Week?
• FX SALES (DOOLING) – GBP: Quick Bullets

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