Strong US CPI data and energy supply risks from the Strait of Hormuz are pushing yields higher, supporting the USD. Meanwhile, the UK pound faces downward pressure due to growing political instability surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Stronger-than-expected US inflation is driving Treasury yields to multi-month highs, threatening to derail market calm.
- 2.The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing significant energy price inflation, with gasoline prices up 50% since the conflict began.
- 3.UK political instability under PM Starmer is weighing on the pound, as internal dissent builds toward a historical resignation threshold.
Table of Contents
- USD: Strong inflation as SoH stays closed
- ISM PRICES PAID POINT TO US INFLATION UPSIDE RISKS STILL LIE AHEAD
- GBP: Starmer hangs on but risks remain
- GBP: Has the resignation threshold been met?
- UK PM EXITS & NEAR MISSES
- KEY RELEASES AND EVENTS
- CERTIFICATION
- LEGAL ENTITIES AND BRANCHES
- GENERAL DISCLAIMERS
- COUNTRY AND REGION SPECIFIC DISCLAIMERS
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Authors
Derek Halpenny
Securities
2-year US Treasury30-year UK GiltEURGBP
Themes
Geopolitical Energy DisruptionUK Political Instability
Regions
North AmericaUKEuropeUnited StatesUnited KingdomChina