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Crédit Agricole CIB’s research emphasizes a cautious approach to G10 FX and macro-thematic positioning amidst evolving geopolitical and inflationary pressures. Proprietary positioning indices highlight that AUD maintains the largest long position despite recent selling, while GBP has returned to being the most significant short following IMM flow activity. Macroeconomic analysis underscores the cooling of energy markets, though core inflation remains a persistent risk with Eurozone and US core targets forecasted at 2.6% and 3.3% respectively. In the Asia-Pacific region, the firm projects a robust GDP recovery for South Korea to 2.6%, supported by semiconductor exports and the phased inclusion of domestic bonds into the FTSE WGBI. Tactically, analysts recommend selling AUD/NZD as interest rate spreads hit 25-year extremes and terms of trade begin to favor New Zealand's export profile. Furthermore, political uncertainty in the UK is viewed through a scenario-based lens, where potential leadership changes within the Labour Party present divergent risks for the British pound's recovery.

69 reports available

Interest Rates Daily thumbnail

Interest Rates Daily

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 12, 2026

The ECB implemented a 25bp rate hike while signaling a likely pause in July, focusing on a new 'milder' policy scenario. Analysts expect global central bank meetings to continue a 'higher for longer' rate narrative.

India: Plugging The Current Account Hole And Our Forecasts thumbnail

India: Plugging The Current Account Hole And Our Forecasts

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 12, 2026

The US-Iran war has disrupted India's current account via trade and remittance losses, creating a USD83bn hole. The government's structural reforms aim to attract capital inflows, but the exchange rate impact depends on the RBI's strategy for unwinding its forward book.

India: Plugging The Current Account Hole And Our Forecasts thumbnail

India: Plugging The Current Account Hole And Our Forecasts

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 11, 2026

The US-Iran war has caused a significant current account deficit in India due to trade disruptions and higher energy import costs. The government and RBI are implementing structural reforms to boost capital inflows, though the impact on the INR remains linked to the management of the central bank's FX forward book.

EUR: Two Drivers, One Signal thumbnail

EUR: Two Drivers, One Signal

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 2, 2026

EUR/USD faces downward pressure from narrowing policy and growth spreads against the USD, compounded by Middle East geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, the RBA and BoE face challenges related to wage-driven inflation and weakening consumer credit, respectively.

Trading the Untradable thumbnail

Trading the Untradable

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 1, 2026

The USD has started June firmer as markets monitor the US-Iran conflict, which is expected to remain a 'frozen' standoff. Analysts anticipate a market shift toward real rate spreads in H2 2026, favoring the USD.

Investors Remain Confident thumbnail

Investors Remain Confident

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 4, 2026

Crédit Agricole's FX Risk Index fell to a two-year low of -0.7343, indicating high investor confidence despite US-Iran tensions. Sentiment is buoyed by the AI stock rally and expectations of a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East.

China May Macro Data Preview

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 8, 2026

Interest Rates Daily

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 5, 2026

Japan Reluctance to Issue JGBs and Premature Rate Hikes

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 1, 2026

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