Eurozone HICP Preview May 2026

Crédit Agricole CIB projects Eurozone headline inflation will rise to 3.22% in May 2026, while core HICP rebounds to 2.57%. This increase is largely attributed to technical base effects in services and seasonal timing related to the Whitsun holiday.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Eurozone headline HICP is expected to rise from 3.03% to 3.22% YoY in May 2026, driven primarily by services rather than energy.
• 2.Core HICP is projected to increase sharply from 2.20% to 2.57% YoY due to technical base effects in airfares and package holidays.
• 3.The 'Whitsun effect' (holiday timing) and weak May 2025 prints are contributing to the temporary seasonal jump in tourism-related services.

Table of Contents

• May HICP: technical rebound for core HICP
• Services: about negative base effects
• Labour-intensive services: same old story
• Services with resets: another calm month
• Volatile services: bouncing back
• Other services
• Core goods: higher, but not because of the energy shock
• Food: base effects led softening
• Energy: after the surge, now the stabilisation
• Forecast tables - Eurozone HICP, France CPI, Italy FOI
• Forecast tables - Germany HICP, France HICP, Italy HICP
• Forecast tables - Spain HICP, Netherlands HICP, Belgium HICP

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