Crédit Agricole CIB
June 1, 2026
Trading the Untradable
Daily UpdateFXCommoditiesRates Govt BondsEnergy
The USD has started June firmer as markets monitor the US-Iran conflict, which is expected to remain a 'frozen' standoff. Analysts anticipate a market shift toward real rate spreads in H2 2026, favoring the USD.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The US-Iran conflict is expected to remain a 'frozen' standoff through September, rather than reaching a full resolution.
- 2.Investors are predicted to shift focus from nominal rate spreads to real rate spreads in H2 2026 as a proxy for relative growth outlook.
- 3.The USD is viewed as undervalued relative to its real rate appeal and is expected to recover in the coming months.
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Authors
Valentin MarinovDavid ForresterAlexandre Dolci
Securities
USDAUDNZDGBPUSDUS Treasuries
Themes
Geopolitical StalemateMonetary Policy TransitionReal Rates vs Nominal Rates
Regions
North AmericaMiddle EastEuropeUnited StatesIranChina