USD: Another Reason to Smile

Daily UpdateFXMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsFinancials

The USD remains strong due to widening rate spreads and hawkish Fed sentiment, despite tentative signs of a US-Iran ceasefire deal boosting risk appetite. Markets are focused on upcoming US PCE inflation data and RBA rate hike prospects.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The USD is currently driven by relative interest rate spreads and hawkish Fed expectations rather than solely safe-haven flows.
  • 2.Optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is fostering 'risk-on' sentiment in global markets.
  • 3.AUD/USD is buoyed by risk appetite and high domestic inflation, but further RBA hikes may be delayed if cyclical data continues to weaken.

Table of Contents

  • Asia overnight
  • Deal or no deal?
  • USD: another reason to smile
  • AUD: helped by the hope of a deal
  • Introducing RMA!
  • FX Research advanced tools
  • Red Mount Analytics
  • Global Markets Research contact details

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Authors

Valentin MarinovDavid ForresterAlexandre Dolci

Securities

SPXAUDUSDAUDNZDEURJPY

Themes

USD Smile Theory EvolutionGeopolitical De-escalation

Regions

North AmericaMiddle EastAsia PacificUnited StatesIranAustralia