Crédit Agricole CIB
May 26, 2026
EUR USD The Real Deal
Daily UpdateFXCommoditiesRates Govt BondsEnergyReal Estate
Risk-off sentiment triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is supporting the USD, while EUR/USD faces headwinds from diverging central bank policies and energy costs. Australian and New Zealand central bank outlooks are shifting as markets weigh housing weakness and inflation data respectively.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Geopolitical risk in the Middle East following US strikes on Iranian sites has triggered risk-off sentiment, weighing on Scandinavian currencies and the NZD.
- 2.Persistent energy price elevation may lead to a policy divergence where ECB and BoE rate hike bets are pared back while the Fed remains neutral, creating headwinds for EUR/USD.
- 3.The RBA's hawkishness is fading due to dovish minutes, lower oil prices, and a sharp decline in Australian housing market activity following tax changes.
Table of Contents
- Asia overnight
- EUR/USD: the real deal
- AUD: keeping an eye on prices
- NZD: RBNZ on hold, but for how long?
- FX Research advanced tools
- Red Mount Analytics
- Global Markets Research contact details
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Authors
Valentin MarinovDavid ForresterAlexandre Dolci
Securities
EURUSDAUDNZDEURJPY
Themes
Geopolitical Risk and Energy SupplyCentral Bank Policy DivergenceHousing Market Impact on Monetary Policy
Regions
Asia PacificEuropeNorth AmericaUnited StatesAustraliaNew Zealand