Security

EURJPY Research and Market Analysis

Research into EURJPY highlights a complex tug-of-war between the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish pivot and broader global macroeconomic pressures. Rising energy prices and supply chain constraints have pushed April’s Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) to 4.9% YoY, leading analysts to identify a June rate hike as a baseline scenario. Despite this shift and approximately JPY 10 trillion in currency interventions, the Yen continues to struggle with fiscal sustainability concerns and underwhelming JGB auctions. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically threats to the Strait of Hormuz, have fostered a risk-off environment that bolsters the USD as a safe haven while impacting Yen crosses. While the Euro remains sensitive to broader risk sentiment, the divergence between the Fed’s influence on global yields and the BoJ’s gradual normalization path remains the primary driver. Long-term forecasts suggest the BoJ will target a 1.5% terminal policy rate by mid-2027, even in the face of soft domestic consumption and potential political resistance.

25 reports available

Japan Macro Weekly thumbnail

Japan Macro Weekly

Mizuho Securities·Jun 1, 2026

Mizuho Securities forecasts a BOJ rate hike to 1.00% in June 2026 following better-than-expected April industrial production data (+0.8% MoM). While Tokyo CPI inflation cooled to 1.4% in May, the report anticipates a renewed pickup in the second half of 2026.

Closing Short EUR/JPY Via A Put Spread thumbnail

Closing Short EUR/JPY Via A Put Spread

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 10, 2026

Crédit Agricole CIB is closing its short EUR/JPY put spread trade following an out-of-the-money expiry and a -2.0% loss. The strategy failed due to JPY weakness driven by energy-related terms of trade shocks.

Closing Short EUR JPY Via A Put Spread thumbnail

Closing Short EUR JPY Via A Put Spread

Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank·Jun 9, 2026

Crédit Agricole CIB has closed its short EUR/JPY trade, executed via a 6M put spread, after the position expired out of the money with a 2% loss. The strategy failed due to JPY weakness driven by a negative terms of trade shock following the US-Iran war.

Fast FX: Closing Long EUR/JPY Trade thumbnail

Fast FX: Closing Long EUR/JPY Trade

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 9, 2026

Crédit Agricole CIB reports the closure of a long EUR/JPY trade initiated on June 1, 2026, which resulted in a -0.63% loss. This follows the firm's systematic FAST FX strategy.

Fast FX Fair Value Model thumbnail

Fast FX Fair Value Model

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 9, 2026

The FAST FX weekly report shows the EUR remains undervalued against the JPY and NOK. No new trades were triggered this week.

Fast FX Fair Value Model thumbnail

Fast FX Fair Value Model

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 8, 2026

The Crédit Agricole CIB FAST FX model reports that the EUR remains undervalued against the NOK and JPY, though no new trades have been triggered. The report details the performance and valuation metrics for various G10 currency pairs.

EUR: Two Drivers, One Signal

Crédit Agricole CIB·Jun 2, 2026

Fast FX: Buy EUR/JPY

Crédit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank·Jun 1, 2026

Will Data and Central Bank Speakers Change Market Focus

Crédit Agricole CIB·May 28, 2026

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