Has US Exceptionalism Returned Already

While US economic exceptionalism has returned in 2026 with strong GDP and data surprises, Deutsche Bank maintains a neutral USD view as global earnings keep pace and equity inflows slow.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US economic exceptionalism has returned in 2026, evidenced by high GDP growth forecasts and positive data surprises compared to G10 peers.
• 2.Despite economic strength, Deutsche Bank remains neutral on the US dollar because US corporate earnings are not significantly outperforming the rest of the world.
• 3.Capital flows into US equities are slowing; TIC data indicates global investors are lightening their record positions from 2025.

Table of Contents

• Has US exceptionalism returned already?
• S&P not GDP
• Not in the top-tier
• Appendix 1
• Important Disclosures
• Analyst Certification