Deutsche Bank economists analyze the historical frequency of US inflation exceeding 4%, noting that while it was rare since 1992, it is common over a 100-year horizon. They suggest looking to long-term historical patterns rather than recent decades to forecast future inflation.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US inflation above 4% is historically not rare over a century, but has been an exception in the post-1992 era.
- 2.The historical template of the last 100 years may be a more reliable guide for future inflation than the last 35 years.
Table of Contents
- DB CoTD: 4%
- Appendix 1
- Important Disclosures
- Analyst Certification
- Additional Information
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Authors
Jim ReidHenry AllenAsim Kaul
Themes
Inflation regime change
Regions
GlobalUnited States