Sweden 360 Weekly Market Review

The Riksbank kept rates steady at 1.75% in May amid surprisingly low inflation, signaling a 'wait and see' approach through 2026. Market pricing has largely absorbed central bank divergence, shifting tactical interest to yield curve steepening and fundamental drivers for the SEK.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Riksbank maintained the policy rate at 1.75% in May with a neutral but vague signal, though SEB suspects internal Board divergence.
• 2.The divergence in front-end rates between the Riksbank and other central banks like the ECB and Norges Bank is now largely priced into the market.
• 3.SEK is increasingly driven by fundamental factors and equity beta rather than geopolitical shocks like the 'Iran crisis'.

Table of Contents

• Section 1: Current Macro & Market Views
• Section 2: Standardized material – FX & Fixed Income Markets
• Macro highlights
• Rates highlights
• FX highlights
• SEB Market Views Summary
• Upcoming Data and Events
• Riksbank: Market pricing and SEB View
• SEB Macro View Summary
• Standard charts
• SEB Surprise Index – Sweden macro
• FX: Factor drivers
• FX: Technical indicators
• FX: EUR/SEK
• FX: USD/SEK
• FX: NOK/SEK
• FX: Forecasts
• FX: Hedge optimization
• Rates: Positioning
• Rates: Excess liquidity
• Rates: SGB issuance & Riksbank holdings
• Rates: Policy setting
• Rates: Premium
• Rates: Curve
• Rates: SGBs
• Rates: Covereds

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial