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SEB’s research highlights a complex global landscape defined by diverging central bank trajectories and heightened geopolitical volatility. Market pricing suggests the Riksbank will reach 2.02% by late 2026, while a broader G10 hawkish shift contrasts with projected rate-cutting cycles for the Federal Reserve and Bank of England. Regional conflicts in the Middle East are fueling a stagflation shock in the EU, leading to downgraded growth forecasts and a focus on rising public debt. In energy markets, a 10 mb/d supply-demand gap persists due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, potentially driving refined product prices higher even as long-term Brent forecasts trend toward $83 by 2027. Domestically, SEB anticipates an upward trajectory for Swedish government debt, reaching 23% of GDP by 2030 as stimulus and defense spending outpace temporary budget surpluses. Currency valuations further reflect these pressures, with the Swedish Krona remaining significantly undervalued against major counterparts like the Swiss Franc, while the USD appears overvalued against the GBP and AUD.

88 reports available

Sweden 360 Weekly Market Review thumbnail

Sweden 360 Weekly Market Review

SEB·Jun 8, 2026

SEB forecasts a 2.6% GDP growth for 2026 and expects the Riksbank to maintain rates on hold in June while simultaneously revising the long-term rate path higher.

What if Hormuz Reopens Market Implications thumbnail

What if Hormuz Reopens Market Implications

SEB·Jun 2, 2026

The report explores the market normalization following a hypothetical reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, forecasting a drop in oil to $75, downward pressure on global interest rates, and a rotation from US AI equities to European markets.

Norway 360 Weekly Market Review thumbnail

Norway 360 Weekly Market Review

SEB·Jun 1, 2026

SEB argues that domestic inflation and labor market tightness in Norway justify a rate hike to 4.50% regardless of external geopolitical shifts. While a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would lower oil prices, widening interest rate differentials should support the NOK against the SEK and EUR.

Sweden 360 Weekly Market Review thumbnail

Sweden 360 Weekly Market Review

SEB·May 26, 2026

SEB forecasts an upward revision to Swedish Q1 GDP and predicts the Riksbank will keep rates at 1.75% through 2027 despite geopolitical risks. The report highlights that while the property sector has extended its debt maturity, households remain highly exposed to floating rates.

Ahead of May Flash CPI thumbnail

Ahead of May Flash CPI

SEB·May 28, 2026

SEB's inflation forecast for May suggests CPIF will reach 1.2% y/y, notably below the Riksbank's 1.6% estimate. The cooling is driven by lower mortgage rates, food price deceleration, and slowing service costs.

Norway 360 Weekly Market Review thumbnail

Norway 360 Weekly Market Review

SEB·May 19, 2026

The report highlights sticky 3% inflation in Norway leading to a hawkish Norges Bank stance, contrasting with Swedish disinflation. It recommends long-end NGB value and FRA steepeners while noting stretched NOK positioning.

Iran War Week 14: Dancing In Quicksand

SEB·Jun 4, 2026

Danish Government Bond Auction Preview June 2026

SEB·Jun 1, 2026

Financial Forecasts

SEB·Jun 9, 2026

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