Iran War Chartpack: The Donkey Doctrine

The report analyzes Week 13 of the Iran War, noting a shift toward a 'Donkey Doctrine' of US restraint and market optimism for a negotiated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The 'Donkey Doctrine' has superseded the Carter Doctrine, as the US shows reluctance to commit ground forces and deterrence against Iran's nuclear and chokepoint capabilities erodes.
• 2.Markets are increasingly pricing in a negotiated deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though global energy stocks remain at critically low levels.
• 3.Iran's economy shows resilience through indigenization and large inventories, despite record headline inflation reaching 73.5%.

Table of Contents

• War & Politics
• The Donkey Doctrine Ate The Carter Doctrine
• Goals and strategies in the 2026 Iran War
• Conflict Dynamics and What to Watch
• What Do Prediction Markets Say?
• US Naval Buildup Continues
• Conflict Scenarios
• Iran's Economy: Resilient Under Pressure
• Chartpack
• Market overview
• Commodities
• Supply Chains
• Equities
• FX
• Credit risk

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial