Sweden 360 Weekly Market Review

SEB forecasts an upward revision to Swedish Q1 GDP and predicts the Riksbank will keep rates at 1.75% through 2027 despite geopolitical risks. The report highlights that while the property sector has extended its debt maturity, households remain highly exposed to floating rates.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Swedish Q1 GDP is expected to be revised upward to 0.2% (2.2% y/y) from the flash estimate of -0.2%.
• 2.The Riksbank is expected to maintain the policy rate at 1.75% until late 2027, despite market pricing of hikes.
• 3.Sweden's commercial property sector is better prepared for rate risks than in 2022, having extended debt maturities from 1.5Y to 2.5Y.

Table of Contents

• Section 1: Current Macro & Market Views
• Section 2: Standardized material – FX & Fixed Income Markets
• Macro highlights
• Rates highlights
• FX highlights
• SEB Market Views Summary
• Upcoming Data and Events
• Riksbank: Market pricing and SEB View
• SEB Macro View Summary
• Standard charts
• SEB Surprise Index – Sweden macro
• FX: Factor drivers
• FX: Technical indicators
• FX: EUR/SEK
• FX: USD/SEK
• FX: NOK/SEK
• FX: Forecasts
• FX: Hedge optimization – Forward points & option implied volatility
• Rates: Positioning – SEB CTA model
• Rates: Excess liquidity, money market spreads
• Rates: SGB issuance & Riksbank holdings
• Rates: Policy setting
• Rates: Premium
• Rates: Curve
• Rates: SGBs
• Rates: Covereds
• Disclaimer

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