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SEB’s research highlights a complex global landscape defined by diverging central bank trajectories and heightened geopolitical volatility. Market pricing suggests the Riksbank will reach 2.02% by late 2026, while a broader G10 hawkish shift contrasts with projected rate-cutting cycles for the Federal Reserve and Bank of England. Regional conflicts in the Middle East are fueling a stagflation shock in the EU, leading to downgraded growth forecasts and a focus on rising public debt. In energy markets, a 10 mb/d supply-demand gap persists due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, potentially driving refined product prices higher even as long-term Brent forecasts trend toward $83 by 2027. Domestically, SEB anticipates an upward trajectory for Swedish government debt, reaching 23% of GDP by 2030 as stimulus and defense spending outpace temporary budget surpluses. Currency valuations further reflect these pressures, with the Swedish Krona remaining significantly undervalued against major counterparts like the Swiss Franc, while the USD appears overvalued against the GBP and AUD.

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