Trump's Lessfires Have Failed to Stabilize the Middle East

Trump's ceasefires in the Middle East have effectively become 'lessfires,' failing to halt conflict while accelerating the militarization of Iranian politics. This decline in US strategic influence and deterrence increases risks of uncontrolled regional escalation.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Trump's ceasefires in the Middle East have functioned as 'lessfires,' maintaining active hostilities rather than achieving peace.
• 2.The conflict has accelerated the consolidation of power by militaristic institutions within Iran, specifically the IRGC, at the expense of civilian government.
• 3.US leverage is diminishing as the conflict exposes the inability to enforce de-escalation, leading to a shift in US goals toward smaller, transactional 'skinny' deals.

Table of Contents

• Key points
• Iran and Israel resume direct strikes as the conflict passes 100-day mark
• Trump's Ceasefires Are Lessfires
• Tactical success, strategic failure?
• The Iranian regime adapts from war to lessfire
• The spoiler problem and diminishing US control over geopolitical processes in the region
• Lebanon: Conflict events and fatalities
• Gaza Strip (Palestine): Conflict events and fatalities
• Oil price and risk indicators
• Details of Deal to Make a Later Deal
• The Donkey Doctrine Ate the Carter Doctrine