Norway Ahead of May CPI

SEB expects Norway's May CPI-ATE to hold steady at 3.2% y/y, slightly lower than the central bank's forecast, as food price base effects and a stronger NOK offset high wage growth.

Key Takeaways

• 1.CPI-ATE is expected to remain unchanged at 3.2% y/y in May, slightly below Norges Bank's forecast of 3.3%.
• 2.Food price inflation is expected to slow due to base effects from high hikes in May 2025, following a jump to 6% in April.
• 3.The Norwegian Krone (NOK) has strengthened, which is predicted to exert downward pressure on inflation throughout 2026.

Table of Contents

• CPI, Norway
• CPI-ATE, Norway
• Core (international definition)
• Consensus forecast errors
• Month-on-month CPI-ATE still above target
• Social protection lowered CPI by 0.3pp in August
• The NOK exchange rate will start lowering inflation
• PPI on consumer goods has accelerated
• Import prices mixed
• Volatile food prices but trend is predicted to be down
• Wages slowing but still high
• Service inflation slightly lower in March and April
• Rent inflation expected to stay high in line with CPI
• Tourist services have slowed but remain high
• Health care is slowing
• Administrative prices are lowering service inflation
• Pricing increased in Q2

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