Iran War Week 14: Dancing In Quicksand

SEB reviews week 14 of the 2026 Iran War, highlighting critical US munitions depletion and the systemic economic resilience of Iran despite a naval blockade.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Depletion of US munitions (Patriot, THAAD, Tomahawk) from the Iran War may take several years to replenish, creating a window of vulnerability in the Indo-Pacific.
• 2.The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with seaborne Iranian oil exports largely disappeared; the world is 'living on borrowed time' until it reopens.
• 3.US-Iran negotiations have seen demands significantly watered down, shifting from regime compliance to securing a deal for Hormuz reopening and nuclear file delays.

Table of Contents

• War & Politics
• Goals and strategies in the 2026 Iran War
• Dynamics & What to Watch: Dancing in Quicksand
• Expended US Munitions May Take Years To Replenish
• Iranian attacks caused significant damage to US military bases
• Details of Deal to Make a Later Deal
• The Donkey Doctrine Ate the Carter Doctrine
• What do prediction markets say about the conflict?
• Scenarios: The Iran War in Three Months
• Iran’s Economy: Resilient Under Pressure
• Market overview
• Commodities
• Supply Chains
• Equities
• FX
• Credit risk
• Who runs Iran?