Report published May 21, 2026
UBS FX Monthly View: Navigating Currency Markets and USD Trends (May 2026)
UBS · May 21, 2026
UBS expects the US dollar to weaken as the Fed pivots to easing and energy prices normalize, favoring pro-growth currencies like AUD and SEK. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain the primary headwind for this bearish USD view.
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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The US dollar is expected to weaken as energy prices normalize and the Federal Reserve resumes its easing cycle.
- 2.UBS prefers selective exposure to pro-growth and commodity-linked currencies like SEK, NZD, AUD, and CNY.
- 3.Emerging Market FX carry is appealing for total returns, but spot gains are limited due to high energy prices and Middle East risks.
Table of Contents
- FX Monthly VIEW
- CIO View: Currencies
- Risks to our view
Report data
Currency markets illustration
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD Target | 1.20 Price | Maintained target based on European fiscal support. |
| GBPUSD Target | 1.40 Price | Expectation based on pound undervaluation and elevated carry. |
| USDCNY Forecast | 6.50 Price | Supported by robust trade surpluses. |
Reports in this series
FX Monthly View is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on May 21, 2026.
Part of the FX Monthly View series — view all 5 editions
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