Crédit Agricole CIB recommends a short position in NOK/SEK, targeting 1.0003, as the pair remains overvalued according to their FAST FX quantitative model.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The FAST FX model has triggered a short trade on NOK/SEK due to persistent overvaluation, targeting a fair value of 1.0003.
- 2.NOK/SEK fair value has risen recently from 0.9842 to 1.0003, driven by Norway-Sweden interest rate spreads and equity outperformance.
- 3.The trade is scheduled for a time-based exit at 22:00 BST on 22 May 2026 if stop-loss or take-profit levels are not hit first.
Table of Contents
- New trades this week
- FX under/overvaluation – Z-scores
- FAST FX fair value summary
- Historical trade performance
- Historical trades
- Portfolio performance
- FX Research advanced tools
- Red Mount Analytics
- Global Markets Research contact details
- Certification
- Foreign exchange disclosure statement to clients of CACIB
- Additional recommendation obligations
- Valuation and methodology
- MiFID II contact details
- Disclaimer
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Authors
Valentin MarinovDavid Forrester
Securities
NOKSEKEURUSDUSDJPYEURSEK
Themes
Quantitative FX Fair Value ModelingRelative Value and Mean Reversion
Regions
EuropeNorwaySweden