Report published May 21, 2026
FX Monthly View: UBS Currency Strategy and Market Outlook - May 2026
UBS · May 21, 2026
UBS expects the US dollar to weaken as the Fed pivots to easing and energy prices normalize. They recommend selective exposure to pro-growth and commodity-linked currencies like the SEK, AUD, and NZD.
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Finvaulta summarizes UBS's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The US dollar is expected to weaken as its yield advantage fades and markets expect the Fed to resume its easing cycle while energy prices normalize.
- 2.Select currencies including SEK, NZD, AUD, and CNY are rated as 'Attractive', benefiting from growth factors, high yields, or trade surpluses.
- 3.FX volatility has remained unexpectedly low despite geopolitical risks and oil price spikes, due to a balance of factors like the AI investment boom.
Table of Contents
- FX Monthly VIEW
- Currencies
- Risks to our view
Report data
Source: Shutterstock
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD Target | 1.20 ratio | Maintained target for mid-2027. |
| GBPUSD Target | 1.40 ratio | Expected target for year-end 2026. |
| USDCNY Forecast | 6.50 ratio | Forecast for the first half of 2027. |
Reports in this series
FX Monthly View is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on May 25, 2026.
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