Nordea Forecast Update

Nordea maintains a positive outlook for the Swedish economy, projecting 2.6% GDP growth for 2026 despite geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The Riksbank is expected to hold interest rates steady until 2027.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Swedish economy is fundamentally robust with strong public finances and a competitive business sector, allowing it to withstand current global uncertainties.
• 2.A primary risk factor is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz; Nordea assumes it will reopen by summer, keeping economic consequences limited.
• 3.The Riksbank is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% through 2026, with two hikes projected in 2027 reaching 2.25%.

Table of Contents

• Turbulent global environment
• Domestic strength
• Unexpected support from abroad
• Low inflation this year – yet the Riksbank remains vigilant
• Resilient households shrug off the uncertainty
• Higher demand in other parts of the economy as well
• Decent labour market
• Currents and rapids could rock the boat

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