Quarterly Update Research Hub

The quarterly updates for 4Q25 and the outlook for 2026 indicate a global economy navigating 'delayed policy impacts' with steady growth expectations, such as a 2.4% GDP projection for the US. Financial institutions like BTG Pactual and XP Inc. are demonstrating resilient recurring earnings, yet they continue to trade at significant valuation discounts compared to their US peers. Consumer sectors, particularly in Australia, are exhibiting a broadening recovery supported by record real savings balances and a financial cushion equivalent to 23 months of essential expenses for mortgage holders. In the energy sector, operational production gains are being offset by high-cost structures and lower Brent price forecasts of $60/b for 2026, maintaining a focus on corporate deleveraging. Investment strategies are pivoting toward a 'risk-on' multi-asset stance that favors equities over tight credit spreads, while identifying niche opportunities in structured products and investment-grade corporates driven by AI-related capex. Despite stabilizing inflation, market participants remain cautious regarding trade frictions and elevated net debt-to-EBITDA ratios in capital-intensive industries.