Crude Awakening

Middle East conflict and surging oil prices have triggered a near-term inflation spike in New Zealand, prompting ANZ to forecast three RBNZ OCR hikes starting in July 2026.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The RBNZ is expected to begin normalising the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in July 2026 with three consecutive 25bp hikes.
• 2.Inflation is poised to spike in the near term (peaking at 4.4% in Q2 2026) due to conflict in the Middle East and rising fuel costs.
• 3.New Zealand GDP growth forecasts have been downgraded to 1.5% for 2026 as high fuel costs and low confidence weigh on activity.

Table of Contents

• At a glance
• The big picture
• Our forecasts
• Forecast charts
• Meet the team
• Important Notice

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