Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking Research

Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking research highlights the profound impact of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions on global energy prices and supply chains, with Brent crude fluctuating between $92 and $94 per barrel. While financial markets show cautious optimism through narrowing GCC CDS spreads, physical maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted at under ten ships per day due to blockades and mines. This energy shock is driving Euro area headline inflation toward a projected 3.3% in May 2026, while concurrently pushing China’s PPI to 2.8% amid margin compression for manufacturers. In China, weak domestic consumption—noted by retail sales of just 0.2%—forces a reliance on exports to the EU to offset rising industrial costs. From a political perspective, the institution anticipates a rally in Colombian assets as candidate Abelardo de la Espriella’s 43.7% first-round vote share signals a potential shift toward a 70 trillion peso fiscal adjustment and aggressive growth targets. Despite political upheaval in Spain, Natixis remains constructive on the country’s macro outlook, projecting 2.4% GDP growth and a reduction in public debt to below 100% of GDP. Overall, the research emphasizes a recurring theme of energy-led cost pressures and political transitions that are reshaping global trade imbalances and fiscal policy across both developed and emerging markets.