April CPI Preview

Natixis forecasts a hot April CPI report with 0.7% headline and 0.4% core monthly increases, driven by gasoline prices and statistical catch-up in housing.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Natixis expects a 'hot' April CPI print, with core CPI rising 0.35% (rounded to 0.4%) and headline CPI rising 0.69% (rounded to 0.7%) month-over-month.
• 2.The high headline inflation figure is primarily driven by sharp increases in retail gasoline prices, which rose 8% in April after a 36% jump in March.
• 3.The core inflation strength is attributed to a 'statistical quirk' in housing data related to the October government shutdown catch-up.

Table of Contents

• US MACRO SNAPSHOT
• April CPI Preview
• Alternative measures...
• ...and wages continue to be muted
• Looking ahead
• Disclaimer

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