Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking
May 10, 2026
Labor Market Solid If Unspectacular
Weekly UpdateMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsFXMaterialsEnergy
The April US payrolls surprised to the upside at 115k, signaling labor market resilience despite geopolitical headwinds from the Iran War. Natixis expects US rates to remain elevated while Banxico concludes its easing cycle at 6.50%.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The April US employment report showed resilience with payrolls rising 115k, significantly exceeding the 65k consensus expectation.
- 2.Foreign demand for US Treasuries is showing signs of weakness or 'quiet quitting,' though it is too early to declare a structural de-dollarization.
- 3.The Iran War continues to disrupt global energy markets, with Latin American countries like Chile being highly exposed as net energy importers.
Table of Contents
- US Week in Review
- What to Watch for Next Week
- US Rates Strategy
- LatAm Highlights
- Latin America – Mapping Latin America’s Energy Balance Stylized Facts
- Chile – Economic activity contraction: a mining story
- Mexico – The Final Cut
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Authors
Benito BerberChristopher HodgeJohn BriggsSelin AkerEmeline Gorguet
Securities
US TreasuriesUSDMXNCopper
Themes
Resilience of the US Labor MarketDe-dollarization and Foreign Treasury FlowsImpact of Geopolitical Conflict on Energy and Inflation
Regions
North AmericaLatin AmericaUnited StatesChileMexico